Latest Pieces#Argentina
02/05/2024
(2024.05.02) TPCG Strategy View
Thoughts on creditor sentiment, student demonstrations, and lines in the sand
19/04/2024
(2024.04.19) TPCG Daily Strategy Watch
With fundamentals improving rapidly, creditors’ concerns gravitate around how Mr. Milei’s approval ratings will evolve over the coming months.
15/04/2024
(2024.04.15) TPCG Strategy Flash
We present our thoughts regarding March's inflation print.
12/04/2024
(2024.04.12) TPCG Strategy View
We take a look at the monetary policy since December to find out if the policy implementation is consistent with the Government’s desired destination.
05/04/2024
TPCG Corporates - TGS & TGN receiving 675% tariff increase
We expect the transitional increase in natural gas transportation tariff to boost TGS and TGN 2Q24 results.
05/04/2024
(2024.04.05) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash
Some thoughts on the conflict with provincial pension funds
26/03/2024
TPCG Corporates - MSUNRG 2025 a pearl in Argentine waters
We reiterate our recommendation on MSUNRG 6.875 2025s.
22/03/2024
TPCG Corporates - YPF: prices on their way to recovery
We expect YPF to deliver a strong result in 2024 driven by the rise in local prices and the increase in exports.
20/03/2024
(2024.03.20) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy View
We take a deep dive into the provincial fiscal balances, their income and expenditure composition, to better grasp the implications the strategies the national government is currently implementing could have on provincial balance sheets.
11/03/2024
TPCG Corporates - TGS 4Q23 & FY23: in the wait for a tariff increase
We expect the transitional increase in natural gas transportation tariff to boost TGS 2Q24 results.
08/03/2024
TPCG Strategy View - A Tale of Two Economic Programs
With the Milei Administration closing on its first 100 days, we look deeply at the two economic programs it launched and the challenges ahead.
27/02/2024
(2024.02.27) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash
La Rioja fails to meet its principal and interest payments on the PRIO28.
26/02/2024
(2024.02.26) TPCG - Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash
We take a look at the recent decision of the national government to cut the Fiscal Strenghtening Fund
29/12/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 4Q23 (2023.12.29)
Argentina Provinces: 4Q23 Update
14/12/2023
TPCG Corporates - Words are easier said than done
We share our views on the O&G and Power Generation sectors considering the statements of the newly elected government.
12/12/2023
TPCG Strategy View - First thoughts about the Caputo Program
We present our thoughts on Mr. Caputo's announcements.
06/12/2023
Corporates 3Q23 Update
In this presentation, you will find a compilation of the 3Q23 results of the most important Argentine corporate names.
22/11/2023
TPCG Corporates - The hard way
We share our views on the energy sector in the next government.
22/11/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.11.22)
We analyze the fiscal outlook for PBA after the second round results.
20/11/2023
TPCG Strategy View - Do you have a clue what happens now?
We take a look at the results of yesterday's runnoff.
15/11/2023
TPCG Strategy US and UK Trips - November 2023
We share the deck of slides we used during our US and UK November 2023 trips.
03/11/2023
TPCG Corporates - Some thoughts on the O&G sector
We share our view on the recent update of diesel and gasoline prices.
30/10/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.30)
TdF launched its reestructuring offer for the FUEGO27.
26/10/2023
TPCG Corporates - Vista 3Q23: back on track
Vista’s 3Q23 results showed a qoq improvement, with revenues increasing +25% qoq boosting the EBITDA margin at a record high of 78%.
23/10/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.23)
We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in CABA, PBA and Entre Ríos.
23/10/2023
TPCG Strategy View - The Peronist machinery pulls a miracle
We take a look at the results of yesterday's general election.
18/10/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 3Q23 (2023.10.18)
Argentina Provinces: 3Q23 Update
18/10/2023
TPCG Corporates - An analysis of 2024 maturities
We believe that the new government will avoid one of the Argentine companies going into default a few weeks after taking office. For this reason, we remain Overweight on AES 7.75 2024s and MSUNRG 6.875 2025s.
09/10/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy (2023.10.09)
TdF is preparing a restructuring offer for the FUEGO27.
05/10/2023
TPCG Corporates - New power generation projects on sight
Among Argentine companies with global bonds, we only find attractive MSUNRG 6.875 2025.
28/09/2023
Corporates Update 2Q23
In this presentation, you will find a compilation of the 2Q23 results of the most important Argentine corporate names
25/09/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.25)
We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Mendoza.
22/09/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy Flash (2023.09.22)
We take a look at the potential impact of the Income Law project on provincial fiscal balances.
19/09/2023
TPCG Corporates - Equity Strategy
We summarize the Argy equity market performance in the past month and provide a credit-by-credit analysis of a selected equities group with our recommendation.
18/09/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.18)
We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Chaco.
14/09/2023
TPCG Strategy View - The Milei Program. What we know so far.
In this piece we delve deeply into what a possible Libertarian government program could look like.
11/09/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.09.11)
We take a look at the results of the provincial elections in Santa Fe.
07/09/2023
TPCG Corporates - YPF rowing in dulce de leche
In our view, YPF bonds are rich, considering that the company’s next quarters’ results will weaken.
05/09/2023
TPCG Corporates - TGN flowing like nat. gas to the north
We initiate coverage of Transportadora de Gas del Norte (ticker in BYMA: TGNO4).
22/08/2023
TPCG Strategy View - Post-PASO outlook: A few thoughts about rationalizing a bad outcome?
We take a look at the aftermath of the PASO, dissecting the Libertarian electorate, and reviewing the challenges of each candidate going forward.
14/08/2023
TPCG Argentina - Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.08.14)
We take a look at the results of the PASO in CABA and PBA.
14/08/2023
TPCG Strategy View - Libertarian Dawn. Peronist Dusk?
We take a look at the results of the PASO.
09/08/2023
TPCG Corporates - TGS’s strength relies on its large liquidity position
We analyze TGS 2Q23 results.
We believe TRAGAS 6.75 2025s are fair priced. However, it is still attractive for those looking for a front-end bond with some carry.
31/07/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.07.31)
Yesterday in Chubut, JxC managed to edge peronism in a tight election.
31/07/2023
TPCG Strategy View - Mr. Massa goes to Washington
We take a look at the available details of the 5th Review SLA announced on Friday, including the new targets and the revised schedule of payments.
17/07/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.07.17)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
14/07/2023
TPCG Corporates - Vista 2Q23: A stumble is not a fall
Vista has delivered a strong performance in the past years, with revenues growing rapidly by focusing on shale crude oil production. We believe Vista’s revenues bottomed in 2Q23 and will resurge strongly in 3Q23.
11/07/2023
TPCG Strategy View - Rallying bonds, worsening fundamentals: Is it all about the election trade?
We take and in depth look at the recent drivers of the Argy rally, while also delving into the worsening fundamentals supporting the story.
11/07/2023
TPCG Corporates - Some trade ideas with YPFDAR, BUEAIR, CAPXAR & TRAGAS
We analyze corporate bond performance in the past week and recommend some trade ideas. We believe BUEAIR 27 and CAPXAR 24 are rich.
30/06/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 2Q23 (2023.06.30)
Argentina Provinces: 2Q23 Update
19/06/2023
TPCG Strategy View - The race’s mile zero. Forty-two to go
We take an in-depth look at the electoral outlook , delving into each of the coalitition's configuration and challenges going forward
05/06/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.06.05)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
30/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.05.30)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
22/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.05.22)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
22/05/2023
TPCG Corporates - Other Industries
Overview of TECOAR, AEROAR, IRSAAR, ARCOR & MASHER 1Q23 results.
18/05/2023
TPCG Corporates - Genneia outperforms in the power generation sector
We noticed heterogeneity in the performance of power generation companies’ 1Q23 results. In this report, we explain the main reasons.
We believe PAMPAR 9.5 26s are rich, thus, we recommend swapping them for GNNEIA 8.75 27s.
16/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.05.16)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
15/05/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.05.15)
Provinces Strategy Flash: Salta, La Pampa, & Fuego elections
15/05/2023
TPCG Corporates - YPF SA 1Q23: remain firm
YPF reported strong 1Q23 results considering that 1Q has been historically the weakest during the year and the effect of the severe drought that impacted diesel sales and grain and flours exports.
We are still Overweight on YPFDAR 25s Old, 26s Secured and 33s. We also recommend 2 swap ideas with Pampa Energia’s bonds.
09/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.05.09)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
08/05/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.05.08)
Provinces Strategy Flash: Misiones, Jujuy, & La Rioja elections.
04/05/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provincial Elections (2023.04.17)
Provinces Strategy Flash: Neuquén and PRN elections.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.01.02)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2022.01.09)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.01.16)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.01.23)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.01.30)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.02.06)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.02.13)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.03.06)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.03.13)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.03.20)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.03.27)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.04.03)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.04.18)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
04/05/2023
Weekly Summary (2023.04.25)
The latest version of our trade book and a summary of the Argy market's performance last week.
03/05/2023
TPCG Argentina Sub-Sovereign Strategy - Provinces 1Q23 (2023.03.31)
Argentina Provinces: 1Q23 Update
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.01.04)
The government exchanged ARS2.9tn, about 67% of the ARS4.3tn in eligible principle.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.27)
Media reports over the weekend pointed out that the Government had negotiated with the IMF to amend the coming NIR targets.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.24)
The BA bourse revised downward its harvest estimate following the damage that last week’s freeze and sleet caused in the core area.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.23)
The primary deficit printed ARS203bn in January, the widest in real terms since the end of the Convertibilidad.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.15)
January’s CPI printed 6%mom, signaling a generalized reacceleration of core and seasonal prices.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.14)
All signs point to inflation continuing its upward trend in January.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.13)
: Media rumors report that the government could announce a USD1- 1.5bn repo with international lenders this week.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.07)
: The JxC leadership released a statement yesterday warning about the government’s financing strategy and zeroing in on the instability of the ARS debt.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.03)
The FdT’s internal dispute escalated in the last weeks, with Kirchnerism dialing up its attacks on Mr. Fernandez, who’s increasingly signaling his intent to run for reelection in a context where the rest of Peronism is failing to find a better candidate.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.02)
January’s high-frequency inflation gauges printed 5.5%mom on the back of seasonal price pressures and rebounding beef prices.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.02.01)
: January’s FX market slid again into the red, resulting in a reserve loss of around USD3bn.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.29)
The Central Bank closes March selling about USD1.6bn, rounding up the worst 1Q since 2003.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.27)
: Mauricio Macri announced yesterday his intention not to participate in the 2023 race, leaving the path open for Mr. Rodriguez Larreta and Mrs. Bullrich.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.23)
We take a deep look at why the Government launched a mandatory debt exchange for private entities.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.21)
: The February primary deficit confirmed our fears that the January print was less of an accident than the Government had signaled.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.20)
The inflationary acceleration and the drought put the Government in a tight spot as its economic policy mix has broken.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.15)
: The February CPI surprised at 6.6%mom, well above expectations, with core prices printing the highest figure on record, at 7.7%mom.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.14)
: The Government and the IMF staff reached an agreement over the EFF program’s fourth review
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.10)
The 2Q ARS debt exchange swapped 64% of the eligible principal, the minimum pledged amount by banks
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.07)
: High-frequency inflation clocked at 6.2%mom in February, driven by accelerating core and seasonal prices
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.06)
: Media reports anticipate that the Government is close to finalizing a deal with regulated players to roll over most of the ARS12tn in ARS paper maturing between June and September.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.25)
While the FX market dynamics continue deteriorating, the Government scrambles to find a policy response
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.21)
L: As expected, the Government missed the 1Q23 primary deficit target, despite a sharp drop in primary spending.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.04.17)
March inflation printed 7.7%mom, surprising yet again on the upside.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.31)
: Mr. Massa told the press that the Government plans to announce on Monday a rationalization of the myriad of FXs created over the past couple of years.
02/05/2023
TPCG Daily Strategy Watch (2023.03.30)
Alberto Fernandez and Sergio Massa toured NY and DC, seeking (i) additional flex in the IMF targets and (ii) fresh financing to compensate for the FX market shortfall resulting from the drought
02/05/2023
TPCG Strategy View (2023.04.06)
We take a look at the 4th review of Argy's IMF program, focusing on the administration's compliance with past and future targets.
02/05/2023
TPCG Strategy View (2023.01.27)
We take a look at the recent fiscal print, in addition to the buyback's aftermath.
28/04/2023
TPCG Corporates - Vista 1Q23: the effects of increasing exports are beginning to be noticed
In the middle of high FX volatility, Vista reported strong 1Q23 with revenues and EBITDA growing by +46% and +61% yoy, positive FCF, cash + ST investments increasing by 43% qoq, and an LTM1Q23 net leverage of 0.4x.
03/04/2023
TPCG Corporates - A positive outcome for YPF on Burford case
TPCG Corporates - A positive outcome for YPF on Burford case
15/03/2023
TPCG Corporates - YPF: FY23E will not be as great as FY22
TPCG Corporates FY23E will not be as great as FY22
15/02/2023
TPCG Corporates - fixed income and equities O&G sector Argentinas new engine
TPCG Corporates fixed income and equities O&G sector Argentinas new engine
23/11/2022
TPCG Corporates - YPF on the sunny side of the street
TPCG Corporates - YPF on the sunny side of the street
06/09/2022
TPCG Corporates - The gust of wind hasn’t reached YPFLUZ 26s yet
TPCG Corporates - The gust of wind hasn’t reached YPFLUZ 26s yet
11/08/2022
TPCG Corporates - YPF’s performance overshadowed by the macro environment
TPCG Corporates - YPF’s performance overshadowed by the macro environment
21/07/2022
TPCG Corporates - PAMPAR 9.5 2026s not to overlook
TPCG Corporates PAMPAR 9.5 2026s not to overlook
18/07/2022
TPCG Corporates - Argentine banks on lethargy
TPCG Corporates Argentine banks on lethargy
23/05/2022
TPCG Corporates - Nobody is watching YPF 26s
TPCG Corporates - Nobody is watching YPF 26s
11/05/2022
TPCG Corporates - 1Q22 strong, 2Q holding ground
TPCG Corporates - TGS 1Q22 strong, 2Q holding ground
28/04/2022
TPCG Corporates - Power Gen. more resilient corps in ‘22
TPCG Corporates Power Gen. more resilient corps in ‘22
09/03/2022
TPCG Corporates - YPF bounced back; YPF LUZ does not go unnoticed
TPCG Corporates - YPF bounced back; YPF LUZ does not go unnoticed
10/11/2021
TPCG Corporates - YPFLUZ 10 26s: smooth sailing ahead
TPCG Corporates - YPFLUZ 10 26s: smooth sailing ahead